Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 515 · EWR → SAT

departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 3:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 515 · EWR → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?