Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 534 · ORD → EWR

departs 6:28 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 534 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?