Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 566 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 566 · SMF → DEN

departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 566 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?