Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 589 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 589 · SFO → SNA

departs 7:10 PM PT · arrives 8:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 589 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?