Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 590 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 590 · BWI → ORD

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling683 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 590 · BWI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?