Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 601 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 601 · CLE → EWR

departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 8:47 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLE that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.72 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 601 · CLE → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?