Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 648 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 648 · EWR → SFO

departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 1:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 648 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?