Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 694 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 694 · SFO → KOA

departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 12:37 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 694 · SFO → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?