Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 741 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 741 · BZN → LAX

departs 5:26 PM MT · arrives 7:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 741 · BZN → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?