Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1020 · MDW → BWI
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip 0.06 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.