Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1044 · BWI → PBI
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
PBI is prone to delays
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PBI (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 5,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.