Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1071 · BWI → RDU
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 14%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.