Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1123
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1123 · BWI → TPA
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.