Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1222
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 1222 · SAN → COS
departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.