Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1267
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1267 · SDF → BWI
departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Other factors
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
10am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.