Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 136 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:20 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.