Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1416 · DAL → TPA
departs 4:10 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.90 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.