Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1474 · DEN → AUS
departs 6:35 AM MT · arrives 9:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.