Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 1478 · DEN → AUS
departs 2:30 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.