Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1515 · DAL → AUS
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.90 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.