Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 172 · BWI → MCO

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 172 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?