Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1744
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1744 · DEN → SMF
departs 9:35 PM MT · arrives 11:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.