Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1822 · SAT → ELP
departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.76 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.