Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1853 · FLL → BWI
departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 20%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at FLL that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from FLL are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.