Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 186 · BWI → SJC
departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.