Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 189 · ATL → BWI
departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.