Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2002
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2002 · LAS → SBA
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at SBA that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.