Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2022 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2022 · HOU → MAF

departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 10:55 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into MAF at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9am departures from HOU are usually not late

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.29 in

MAF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2022 · HOU → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?