Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2082
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 2082 · HOU → SMF
departs 7:35 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from HOU are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.41 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.