Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2140
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2140 · IND → TPA
departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.