Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2164 · JAX → MDW
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
12%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
12%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 4.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.