Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2186 · LAS → AUS
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 1:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.99 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.