Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2209 · MCI → MCO

departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,833 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.20 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2209 · MCI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?