Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2281 · LAS → MSY
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 1:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 23%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.