Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2289
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2289 · LAS → OAK
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 11:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.