Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2362
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2362 · LAS → SMF
departs 9:10 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.