Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2374 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2374 · LAS → TUL

departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 3:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at TUL that day

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2374 · LAS → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?