Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2396 · SEA → OAK
departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.