Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2414 · LAS → TUS
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 24%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at TUS that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.