Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2414 · SMF → LGB
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late
↑
LGB is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGB that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.