Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2465 LANDED 9:54 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2465 · DAL → SNA

took off 9:18 PM CT · landed 9:54 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day

↓ DAL is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.24 in

SNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2465 · DAL → SNA

Odds over time