Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2496 · RNO → SJC
departs 7:30 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from RNO are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.