Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2516 · LIT → BNA
departs 8:10 AM CT · arrives 9:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −25 pts in 24h
−25 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIT that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.97 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.