Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 2528 · MCI → AUS
departs 6:50 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.