Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2537 · SMF → SAN
departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 2:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 30%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.