Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2593 · SAN → RNO
departs 10:00 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into RNO at that hour are often late
↓
10pm departures from SAN are usually not late
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.