Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2795 LANDED 10:42 PM PT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2795 · MCO → SAN

took off 9:19 PM ET · landed 10:42 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2795 · MCO → SAN

Odds over time