Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2812 · MDW → MCI
departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.