Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2824 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2824 · MDW → MEM

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

MEM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2824 · MDW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?