Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2830 · LAS → AUS

departs 8:40 AM PT · arrives 1:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2830 · LAS → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?